Using the Northern College Health Services visit volume in Appendix 6-1 on page

Question

Using the Northern College Health Services visit volume in Appendix 6-1 on page 113, provide a forecast of the number of clinic visits for week XX using:

6-4: Extrapolation based upon Moving Averages

6-5: Extrapolation based upon Exponential Smoothing

6-6: Of all methods used, which is best and why?

Table for Northern College Health Services:

Appendix 6-1 Visit Volume for Northern College Health Services

Month

Visits to Health Services

2005

Jan

21

2007

Jan

32

Feb

19

Feb

34

Mar

16

Mar

39

Apr

20

Apr

42

May

15

May

41

Jun

18

Jun

21

July

16

July

24

Aug

14

Aug

28

Sept

18

Sept

47

Oct

25

Oct

45

Nov

30

Nov

46

Dec

16

Dec

44

2006

Jan

22

2008

Jan

39

Feb

26

Feb

41

Mar

31

Mar

34

Apr

39

Apr

39

May

44

May

38

Jun

17

Jun

19

July

22

July

28

Aug

18

Aug

29

Sept

27

Sept

37

Oct

33

Oct

39

Nov

29

Dec

33

Month

Visits to Health Services

2005

Jan

21

2007

Jan

32

Feb

19

Feb

34

Mar

16

Mar

39

Apr

20

Apr

42

May

15

May

41

Jun

18

Jun

21

July

16

July

24

Aug

14

Aug

28

Sept

18

Sept

47

Oct

25

Oct

45

Nov

30

Nov

46

Dec

16

Dec

44

2006

Jan

22

2008

Jan

39

Feb

26

Feb

41

Mar

31

Mar

34

Apr

39

Apr

39

May

44

May

38

Jun

17

Jun

19

July

22

July

28

Aug

18

Aug

29

Sept

27

Sept

37

Oct

33

Oct

39

Nov

29

Dec

33

Explanation / Answer

From the given data

The MAD and MSE of Exponential smoothing at alpha = 0.2 is lower that that of 3 year moving averages.

So Exponential smoothing at alpha = 0.2 is best

3 years moving Exponential Absolute Average method Absolute Error Error^2 Smoothing alpha =0.2 Error Error^2 2005 Jan 21 Feb 19 21 2 4 Mar 16 20.6 4.6 21.16 Apr 20 18.66666667 1.333333333 1.777778 19.68 0.32 0.1024 May 15 18.33333333 3.333333333 11.11111 19.744 4.744 22.50554 Jun 18 17 1 1 18.7952 0.7952 0.632343 July 16 17.66666667 1.666666667 2.777778 18.63616 2.63616 6.94934 Aug 14 16.33333333 2.333333333 5.444444 18.108928 4.108928 16.88329 Sept 18 16 2 4 17.2871424 0.712858 0.508166 Oct 25 16 9 81 17.42971392 7.570286 57.30923 Nov 30 19 11 121 18.94377114 11.05623 122.2402 Dec 16 24.33333333 8.333333333 69.44444 21.15501691 5.155017 26.5742 2006 Jan 22 23.66666667 1.666666667 2.777778 20.12401353 1.875986 3.519325 Feb 26 22.66666667 3.333333333 11.11111 20.49921082 5.500789 30.25868 Mar 31 21.33333333 9.666666667 93.44444 21.59936866 9.400631 88.37187 Apr 39 26.33333333 12.66666667 160.4444 23.47949493 15.52051 240.8861 May 44 32 12 144 26.58359594 17.4164 303.3311 Jun 17 38 21 441 30.06687675 13.06688 170.7433 July 22 33.33333333 11.33333333 128.4444 27.4535014 5.453501 29.74068 Aug 18 27.66666667 9.666666667 93.44444 26.36280112 8.362801 69.93644 Sept 27 19 8 64 24.6902409 2.309759 5.334987 Oct 33 22.33333333 10.66666667 113.7778 25.15219272 7.847807 61.58808 Nov 29 26 3 9 26.72175417 2.278246 5.190404 Dec 33 29.66666667 3.333333333 11.11111 27.17740334 5.822597 33.90263 2007 Jan 32 31.66666667 0.333333333 0.111111 28.34192267 3.658077 13.38153 Feb 34 31.33333333 2.666666667 7.111111 29.07353814 4.926462 24.27003 Mar 39 33 6 36 30.05883051 8.941169 79.94451 Apr 42 35 7 49 31.84706441 10.15294 103.0821 May 41 38.33333333 2.666666667 7.111111 33.87765153 7.122348 50.72785 Jun 21 40.66666667 19.66666667 386.7778 35.30212122 14.30212 204.5507 July 24 34.66666667 10.66666667 113.7778 32.44169698 8.441697 71.26225 Aug 28 28.66666667 0.666666667 0.444444 30.75335758 2.753358 7.580978 Sept 47 24.33333333 22.66666667 513.7778 30.20268607 16.79731 282.1498 Oct 45 33 12 144 33.56214885 11.43785 130.8244 Nov 46 40 6 36 35.84971908 10.15028 103.0282 Dec 44 46 2 4 37.87977527 6.120225 37.45715 2008 Jan 39 45 6 36 39.10382021 0.10382 0.010779 Feb 41 43 2 4 39.08305617 1.916944 3.674674 Mar 34 41.33333333 7.333333333 53.77778 39.46644494 5.466445 29.88202 Apr 39 38 1 1 38.37315595 0.626844 0.392933 May 38 38 0 0 38.49852476 0.498525 0.248527 Jun 19 37 18 324 38.39881981 19.39882 376.3142 July 28 32 4 16 34.51905585 6.519056 42.49809 Aug 29 28.33333333 0.666666667 0.444444 33.21524468 4.215245 17.76829 Sept 37 25.33333333 11.66666667 136.1111 32.37219574 4.627804 21.41657 Oct 39 31.33333333 7.666666667 58.77778 33.29775659 5.702243 32.51558 Nov 35 35 1225 34.43820527 34.43821 1185.99 332 4723.333 1301.247179 326.8724 4140.639 7.545454545 107.3485 7.428918 94.10544 MAD MSE MAD MSE

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