YOU MUST USE CENTERED MOVING AVERAGE TO COMPUTE SEASONALITY FACTORS. NO CREDIT W

Question

YOU MUST USE CENTERED MOVING AVERAGE TO COMPUTE SEASONALITY FACTORS. NO CREDIT WILL BE REWARDED IF YOU DO NOT.

34. A popular brand of tennis shoe has had the following demand history by quarters over a three-year period. Year 1 Demand Year 2 Demand Year 3 Demand 16 14 25 45 76 47 a. Determine the seasonal factors for each quarter. b. Based on the result of part (a), determine the deseasonalized demand series. c. Predict the demand for each quarter of Year 4 for the deseasonalized series from a six-quarter moving average. d. Using the results from parts (a) and (c), predict the demand for the shoes for each quarter of Year 4

Explanation / Answer

Year Quarter Demand MA CMA Ratio Avg_Ratio SI DeS 1 1 12 0.316399 37.92674 1 2 25 0.796435 31.38988 1 3 76 41.25 41.75 1.820359 1.651585 46.01639 1 4 52 42.25 43.125 1.205797 1.235832 42.07692 2 1 16 44 43.375 0.368876 0.325496 0.316399 50.56898 2 2 32 42.75 44 0.727273 0.819333 0.796435 40.17904 2 3 71 45.25 45 1.577778 1.699069 1.651585 42.989 2 4 62 44.75 46.375 1.336927 1.271362 1.235832 50.16863 3 1 14 48 49.625 0.282116 0.316399 44.24786 3 2 45 51.25 49.375 0.911392 0.796435 56.50178 3 3 84 47.5 1.651585 50.86022 3 4 47 1.235832 38.03106 a) S.I Q1 0.316399 Q2 0.796435 Q3 1.651585 Q4 1.235832 b) Deseasonalized demand series is as mentioned above c) The equation comes to 38.28633+0.91t Q1 50.11633 Q2 51.02633 Q3 51.93633 Q4 52.84633 d) Q1 15.85676 Q2 40.63916 Q3 85.77726 Q4 65.30919

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