The Application Outbreaks, from Ebola to Zika and currently the flu, have long c
ID: 3209811 • Letter: T
Question
The Application Outbreaks, from Ebola to Zika and currently the flu, have long caught the attention of the world. In this homework, we will use a timestepping algorithm to model a hypo- thetical Ebola outbreak. The basis of your analysis will be the Kermack-McKendrick model for an epidemiological outbreak. Let V(t) E R' be your outbreak vector, where Vi(t)-susceptible population y(t) = recovered population then the governing set of differential equations are ½(t)-infected population ,(t)-number of deaths dV(t) P- 100 100 E(t, V) V(0) = 1.0 = dt where the rate equation is given by The model parameters are (with initial values given) c(t) g(t) 7(t) 6(t) A(t) P average number of contacts per individual per day ( 100) likelihood infection contact results in transmission (q = 0.001) per capita recovery rate ( 1 /30) per capita fatality rate ( = 1 /30) c(t)g(t) = transmission rate total population at onset of outbreak (P = 3 × 108). = = = = The unit of time is measured in days. Given the suddenness of this outbreak, there are two options being considered on how to use resources: Option 1 The first option is to spend resources on treatment so that ninety percent of the infected fully recover. This will take three months to implement. This means that tExplanation / Answer
ANSWER:
3. imprEuler0: = proc(F,,x0,y0,h,N)
Local i,L,X,X1,X2;
X:=evalf(<x0|y0>);
L:=X;
For i from 0 to 1460 do
X1:=x+<h|h*F(X[1],X[2])>;
X2:=x+<h|h*F(X1[1],Xx[2])>;
X:=(X1+X2)/2;
L:=L,X;
End do;
Return <L>;
End proc;
4. . Option 1 is effective.Because while calculating x and y the value will go until 90 . so option 1 is effective.
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