The exponential smoothing method of forecasting is the most appropriate method f

Question

The exponential smoothing method of forecasting is the most appropriate method for time series that exhibit:

A.

irregularity.

B.

seasonality.

C.

a constant downward trend.

D.

a constant upward trend.

1. The seasonal component in a time series reflects a long-term, relatively smooth pattern or direction.

True

False

2.Seasonality is a time-series component.

True

False

3. Which of the following components describe the up and down movements of a time series that vary both in length and in intensity?

A. the cyclical component

B. the trend component

C. the seasonal component

D .the irregular component

4. In which component of the time series will the effect of an unpredictable, rare event be contained?

A .the seasonal component

B. the irregular component

C. the cyclical component

D. the trend component

5. The irregular component of a time series exhibits a tendency to grow or decrease rather steadily over long periods of time.

True

False

6. We can smooth a time series using the method of moving averages, based on the idea that any large irregular component at any point in time will exert a smaller effect if we average the point with its immediate neighbors.

True

False

7. An apartment complex manager randomly selects 10 buildings from the complex's 30 buildings, and then interviews one household member from each apartment in the 10 buildings. This is an example of cluster sampling.

True

False

8. The Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing procedure allows only the trend component in a time series.

True

False

9.Simple exponential smoothing provides a forecast based on a weighted average of current and past values.

True

False

10. If a time series is rather smooth, we would use a large value for the smoothing constant in order to give more weight to the most recent observation.

True

False

11. The exponential smoothing method of forecasting is the most appropriate method for time series that exhibit:

A. irregularity.

B.seasonality.

C.a constant downward trend.

D.a constant upward trend.

Explanation / Answer

1. A.   TRUE

2. A. TRUE

3. D .the irregular component

4. C. the cyclical component

5.   A. TRUE

6.    A. TRUE

7.   A. TRUE

8. B.FALSE

9.   B. FALSE

10. A.TRUE

11. B. seasonality.

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