A study finds a p-value of 0.04. For each statement below, identify whether it i

Question

A study finds a p-value of 0.04. For each statement below, identify whether it is correct or incorrect. (a) There is a 4% chance that the null hypothesis is true. (b) There is a 4% chance that the alternative hypothesis is not true. (c) There is a 96% chance that the alternative hypothesis is true. (d) There is a 4% chance that the null hypothesis is true given the observed data or more extreme. (e) There is a 4% chance that the alternative hypothesis is not true given the observed data or more extreme. (f) There is a 4% chance of obtaining the observed data or more extreme if the null hypothesis is true. (g) There is a 96% chance of obtaining the observed data or more extreme if the alternative hypothesis is true.

Explanation / Answer

Only (f) is correct and rest all other statements are incorrect.

P values are calculated based on the assumptions that the null is true for the population and that the difference in the sample is caused entirely by random chance. Consequently, P values can’t tell you the probability that the null is true or false because it is 100% true from the perspective of the calculations.

So, statements (a), (b), (c), (d), (e) are incorrect, as they state that p-value shows the probability of null or alternative hypothesis to be true.

P values address only one question: how likely are your data, assuming a true null hypothesis? It does not measure support for the alternative hypothesis. So (g) is also a incorrect statement as it is a statement for alternative hypothesis.

So, only correct statement is (f) - There is a 4% chance of obtaining the obeserved data or more extreme if the null hypothesis is true.

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