Weather variability and Climate Change bility in lo WEATHER VARIABILITY AND CLIM

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Weather variability and Climate Change bility in lo WEATHER VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE the Weather and climate are related but different concepts refers to the conditions in atmosphere over a relatively short period of time, whereas climate refers to the composit weather conditions over an extended period of time-30 years being the minimum period typicall used to define the "normal" (average) temperature and precipitation conditions for a locatio However, the climate of a location does not simply refer to average weather conditions--weather extremes and year-to-year fluctuations are also part of climate, and in any given year the precipi tation and temperatures experienced may deviate significantly from long-term averages. Addin to the complexity are phenomena in the atmosphere and ocean, such as El Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, that influence year-to-year or even decade-to-decade weather Because of such variation, it is often difficult to distinguish the "signal" of long-term climate change from the "noise" of weather variability or cyclical phenomena. In this exercise, we look at long-term weather data for three locations in North America to illustrate some of the considerations used to sort out weather variability and natural cycles from cli mate change. Keep in mind that the weather records used here are for illustrative purposes only--they may not be enough in themselves to draw definitive conclusions about local or global climate change. FACTORSINFLUENCING LONG-TERM WEATHER PATTERNS Many factors can lead to temperature and precipitation variation in the long-term weather record. In addition to random variability, some of these factors include the following: Variations in Solar Output: The energy output of the Sun varies slightly (by perhaps 0.1 to 0.2 percent) during its well-documented 11-year sunspot cycle, and some evidence points to temperature fluctuations of as much as 0.2°C (0.4°F) in some parts of the world as a result. Atmospheric Aerosols: Alarge increase in atmospheric aerosols from major volcanic eruptions, such as El Chichon in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991, can lead to temperature changes For example, following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines (the largest volcanic eruption in the world since 1912), average global temperature dropped by about 0.5°C (0.9°F for the following year

Explanation / Answer

1. There is a significant amount of 10 degree F increase in average annual temperature for Tucson over the last century whereas for Bozeman and Nome the increse is not much and is around 5 degree F and 2 degree F respectively.

2. 10, 5, 2 respectively.

3. Warmest years for the cities are - Tucson in 1990, Bozeman in 1935, Nome in 1980.

4. a. In 1970-1980 Nome. b. No

5. No there are other factors too influencing the weather other than greenhouse gases such as Atmospheric Areosols, variations in solar output etc.

6 No

7 Only Nome and Bozeman seems to be affected by this event as the tempereture during 1990-1992 goes down whereas it doesn't seems to affect Tucson.

8 The warmest priod in Nome between 1975-2205 is 1980.

13. Bozeman.

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