During an election year, we see articles in the newspaper that state confidence

Question

During an election year, we see articles in the newspaper that state confidence intervals in terms percentages. For example, a poll for a particular candidate running for president might show that the candidate has 40% of the vote with a margin of error of 3%. This election poll was calculated with 95% confidence. Is there a 40% chance that this candidate will be elected? There a 40% chance that this candidate will be elected, and we are 90% sure of it. There a 40% chance that this candidate will be elected, and we are 95% sure of it. Maybe. There is a 95% chance the actual vote will be between 37% and 43% There is not a 40% chance that this candidate will be elected. The proportion is 43%. There is not a 40% chance that this candidate will be elected, and we are 90% sure of it. There is not a 40% chance that this candidate will be elected, and we are 95% sure of it.

Explanation / Answer

Maybe. There is a 95% chance the actual vote will be between 37% and 43%

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