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(22.25) The Harris Poll asked a sample of smokers, Do you believe that smoking w

ID: 3232353 • Letter: #

Question

(22.25) The Harris Poll asked a sample of smokers, Do you believe that smoking will probably shorten your life, or not?
Of the 1010 people in the sample, 848 said Yes.

Step 1:
Harris called residential telephone numbers at random in an attempt to contact an SRS of smokers.
Based on what you know about national sample surveys, what is likely to be the biggest weakness in the survey?

People are suspicious when they are asked over the phone, because they are not sure about the identity of the caller.
This may result in insincere answers.

Step 2:
We will nonetheless act as if the people interviewed are an SRS of smokers.
Give a 95% four plus confidence interval for the percent of smokers who agree that smoking will probably shorten their lives.

The answers may be influenced by the formulation of the question. The survey excludes those who have no phones or have only cell phone service. High proportion of nonresponse.

People are suspicious when they are asked over the phone, because they are not sure about the identity of the caller.
This may result in insincere answers.

Step 2:
We will nonetheless act as if the people interviewed are an SRS of smokers.
Give a 95% four plus confidence interval for the percent of smokers who agree that smoking will probably shorten their lives.

0.8193 to 0.8573 0.8170 to 0.8622 0.8156 to 0.8609 0.8184 to 0.8636

Explanation / Answer

Step 1:
Harris called residential telephone numbers at random in an attempt to contact an SRS of smokers.
Based on what you know about national sample surveys, what is likely to be the biggest weakness in the survey

The answers may be influenced by the formulation of the question

step 2)

for p=845/1010 =0.84 ; p=1010

std error of mean =(p(!-p)/n)1/2 =0.0115

for 95% CI, z=1.96

hence confidence interval =p-/+z*std error =0.8170 to 0.8622