There are four mutually exclusive outcomes that may occur after you take this ex

Question

There are four mutually exclusive outcomes that may occur after you take this exam: you get the highest grade in the class, you get the second highest grade in the class, you get the third highest grade in the class, or your score is below the third highest. Because there are four outcomes, some people may argue that the probability that you will score the highest in the class is 25%. After all, when a 6-sidcd die is rolled, the probability of it displaying a 3 is 1/6. Is the reasoning behind this argument correct? Why or why not?

Explanation / Answer

Yes if the outcomes are mutually exclusive, you have 25% chances to fall in any category, BUT it does not mean that you are the highest scorer in the class. You are in that category of highest grade students, but there may be more than one student in that category. Therfore the argument that the probability that you will score the highest in the class is 25% is not correct.

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