Question 1 contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In

Question

Question 1 contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In Excel, create forecasts for periods 6-13 using each of the following methods: 5 period simple moving average; 4 period weighted moving average (0.63, 0.26, 0.08, 0.03); exponential smoothing (alpha = 0.23 and the forecast for period 5 = 53); linear regression with the equation based on all 12 periods; and quadratic regression with the equation based on all 12 periods. Round all numerical answers to two decimal places.

The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are:

(1) 45  (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59  (5) 55  (6) 57  (7) 64  (8) 63  (9) 72  (10) 66  (11) 70  (12) 73

1) With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

2) With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

3) Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

Explanation / Answer

(1) following information has been generated for fiting linear regresstion y=a+bt=40.61+2.42t

for t=13, y=40.61+2.42*13=72.07

(2)y=a+bt+ct2=42.86+3.17*t-0.057*t2

for t=13, y=42.86+3.17*13-0.057*13*13=74.44

(3) fore cast for linear and qauadratic is given as y-est(linear) and y-est (quadratic).

the MAD is average of t=6 to 12 is given and quadratic MAD is less than linear MAD

Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Mean F Value P-value Squares Square Model 1 837.17483 837.175 80.89 <.0001 Error 10 103.49184 10.3492 Corrected Total 11 940.66667 Root MSE 3.21701 R-Square 0.89 Dependent Mean 60.3333 Adj R-Sq 0.879 Coeff Var 5.33207 Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Standard t Value P-value Estimate Error Intercept 1 44.60606 1.97994 22.53 <.0001 t 1 2.41958 0.26902 8.99 <.0001

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