You are an intelligence analyst focused on a particular known terrorist. Admitte
ID: 3244099 • Letter: Y
Question
You are an intelligence analyst focused on a particular known terrorist. Admittedly, you have little information about this guy, yet you are asked to assess whether he is a threat. You assess at present that the probability the patient has an intent to hurt is 0.9. You also assess the probability that he has a capability to attack at present to be 0.5. Finally, on the whole you assess the probability that he recognizes an opportunity to attack to be 0.7. What is the probability that your target is a present threat? (assume intentions, capability, and opportunity are independent).
Explanation / Answer
probability the patient has an intent to hurt is 0.9
probability that he has a capability to attack at present to be 0.5
probability that he recognizes an opportunity to attack to be 0.7
since intentions, capability, and opportunity are independent
probability that your target is a present threat = probability the patient has an intent to hurt * probability that he has a capability to attack at present* probability that he recognizes an opportunity to attack
= 0.9*0.5*0.7 = 0.315
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