1) The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are: (1) 45 (2) 52 (3) 48 (

ID: 3244287 • Letter: 1

Question

1) The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are:

(1) 45 (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59 (5) 55 (6) 54 (7) 64 (8) 59 (9) 72 (10) 66 (11) 64 (12) 78

Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

2) Using the 4 period weighted moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

3) With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be:

4) With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

5) With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

6) Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

(1) 5 point MA (13) 67.8 MAD: 6.94

(2)4 point MA (13) 67.625 MAD: 4.45

(3)Single exp smoothing (13) 72.49 MAD:5.08

(4)Linear reg (13) 75.21 MAD:3.85

(5)Quadratics reg (13) 76.09 MAD: 3.83

(6) Find yourself!

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