Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series of sales. R

Question

Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series of sales. Refer to data above. When a naive method is used, what is the forecast on the sales in Quarter 2 of Year 2. a. 20 b. 44 c. 27 d. 30 Refer to data in Q21. When a three-quarter moving average is used, what is the forecast on the sales in Quarter 2 of Year 2. a. 20.5 b. 44.3 c. 26.7 d. 30.2 Refer to data in Q21. When a three-quarter weighted moving average (W_1 = 0.5, W_2 = 0.3, and W_3 = 0.2) is used, what is the forecast on the sales in Quarter 2 of Year 2. a. 24.4 b. 30.2 c. 22.8 d. 31.2 Refer to data in Q21. When an exponential smoothing model is used with a smoothing parameter alpha of 0.30 and a Q1-Year 2 forecast is 20, what is the forecast on the sales in Quarter 2 of Year 2. a. 27.2 b. 29.2 c. 31.2 d. 33.2 Refer to data in Q21. The equation for the trend line of quarterly sales is F_1 = 24.4 + 1.2t. What is the forecast on the sales in Quarter 2 of Year 2. a. 31.2 b. 30.4 c. 32.2 d. 31.6

Explanation / Answer

21) In naive method last period's actuals are used as this period's forecast, without adjusting them or attempting to establish causal factors.

So, Year 2 quarter 2 forecast will be same as year 1 q4 actuals = 20

22) Add up the last 3 numbers in the list and divide your answer by 3. Write this answer down as this is your first 3 point moving average.

here forecast for Q2 = (16 + 20 + 44)/3 = 80/3 = 26.7

23) Q2 forecast = 0.5 * 44 + 0.3 * 20 + 0.2 * 16 = 22 + 6 + 3.2 = 31.2

24) Q2 forecast = 0.3 * 44 + ( 1 - 0.3) * 20 = 13.2 + 14 = 27.2

25) Q2 forecast: here t = 6

Forecast = 24.4 + 1.2 * 6 = 24.4 + 7.2 = 31.6

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse B
• Subjects

---

---

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.