Monthly sales from the last five years at a coffee shop have been analyzed. Base

Question

Monthly sales from the last five years at a coffee shop have been analyzed. Based on the deseasonalized data, seasonal indexes, and regression analysis, the trend line equation is: 74123 + 26.9(t).

The seasonal index values are

            Month             Index   

            Jan                   1.38

            Feb                  1.42

            Mar                 1.35

            Apr                  1.03

            May                 .99

            June                 .62

            July                 .51

            Aug                 .58

            Sept                 .82

            Oct.                 .82

            Nov                 .92

            Dec                  1.56

Provide final forecast values for February, March, and April of Year 6.

Explanation / Answer

1)for february year 6(t=12*5+2=62); deseasonalised forecast =74123+26.9*62=75790.8

hence seaqsonalised forecast for february year 6 =75790.8*1.42=107622.9

2)for March year 6(t=12*5+3=63); deseasonalised forecast =74123+26.9*63=75817.7

hence seasonalised forecast for february year 6 =75817.7*1.35=102353.9

3)for April year 6(t=12*5+4=64); deseasonalised forecast =74123+26.9*64=75844.6

hence seasonalised forecast for february year 6 =75844.6*1.03=102390.2

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