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(Q1) What is the forecast for May, June and July based on a 3-month weighted mov

ID: 3248039 • Letter: #

Question

(Q1) What is the forecast for May, June and July based on a 3-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 5, 4, and 3 (greatest weight is to the most recent data point)? Use the bottom of the page to show your computations for May through July for partial credit.

Month

Demand

Forecast

January

80

February

83

March

87

April

93

83.91

May

97   

June

99

July

Note that you are working with months, so the weights are 5, 4 and 3 parts of 12. April’s Forecast is given as a guide.

(Q2) Below you are given the first four values of a time series and a forecast for period 4. Time Period. 1,2,3,4,5 Time Series Value 18,22,30,31 Forecast 3PMA 23.33

Using a 3-period moving average, the forecasted value for period 5 is

(Q3) 27-30) The prices for a kilowatt hour of electricity for the years 2010 through 2013 are given below.

Year

Price/KWH

2010

$.035

2011

.039

2012

.040

2013

.041

Determine the price relatives for the years 2010 through 2013. Let 2010 be the base.

Year

Price Relative

2010

2011

2012

2013

Month

Demand

Forecast

January

80

February

83

March

87

April

93

83.91

May

97   

June

99

July

Explanation / Answer

Q>1

Q. 2

Q.3

Month Demand Forecast January 80 February 83 March 87 April 93 83.91 May 97 88.5 June 99 93.1667 July 96.8333