7. In a CPM network, the critical path has six activities. T Rell uulao next. Du

Question

7. In a CPM network, the critical path has six activities. T Rell uulao next. Duration (Days) Activity Optimistic (To) Most Likely (Tm) Pessimistic (Tp 13 8 8 10 15 Compute the following: a. The probability that the project will finish by the end of day 36 b. The probability that the project will finish by the end of day 39 c. The probability that the project will finish before day 38 d. The probability that the project will finish on day 35 c. The probability that the project will finish at least 3 days carly f. The probability that the project will finish more than 4 days late g. The completion date with at least a 90% confidence level

Explanation / Answer

(o+p+4m)/6 (p-o)/6 Variance Activity o m p Expected Std Dev Std dev ^2 B 2 3 5 3.166666667 0.50 0.25 D 4 8 13 8.166666667 1.50 2.25 F 5 6 8 6.166666667 0.50 0.25 K 3 3 3 3 0.00 0.00 N 7 10 15 10.33333333 1.33 1.78 S 3 5 8 5.166666667 0.83 0.69 36 4.66667 M S Mean Std Dev A X value 36 P value 0.5 NORM.DIST(X,M,S,TRUE) Probability 50.00% B X value 39 P value 0.739842 NORM.DIST(X,M,S,TRUE) Probability 73.98% C X value 37.999 (before 38) P value 0.665804 NORM.DIST(X,M,S,TRUE) Probability 66.58% D X value 34 P1 P value 0.334118 NORM.DIST(X,M,S,TRUE) Probability 33.41% X value 35 P2 P value 0.415162 NORM.DIST(X,M,S,TRUE) Probability 41.52% P2-P1 On day 35 8.10%

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