I don\'t really understand these concepts 3. State whether the following is a pt

Question

I don't really understand these concepts 3. State whether the following is a pt for correct id and 1 pt for explanation): classical or Bayesian (subjective) probability, and explain why (1 a. The chance of getting a 5 on a fair 6-sided die is 1/6. b. The chance that the replacement bill for the ACA will pass before Congress takes is summer break is 90%. C. There is a 90% chance of a major correction in the stock market in the next 6 months. d. The chance a baby will be born male is 51%. If you flip a fair coin many times, about 50% of the time you will have gotten heads. e.

Explanation / Answer

a)Classical probability. Because the die is a fair one. Hence each of it's side are numbered as 1,2,3,4,5,6. Hence out of these 6 possible outcomes/faces, 5 can appear only once. So the chance of getting a 5 is "1/6"

##Probability=number of favourable outcomes / number of possible outcomes. This is the defination of classical probability.

b) & c) Bayesian (Subjective) Probability. This is because it's very subjective.In both the cases it depends on the individual saying this. There is no mathematics involved behind this.

Subjective probability is a probability derived from an individual's personal judgment about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur. It contains no formal calculations and only reflects the subject's opinions and past experience. Subjective probabilities differ from person to person, and they contains a high degree of personal bias.

d) (By Classical Probability):Now during the birth process we know that the probability of a boy/girl being born is 1/.This is because there are only two possible outcomes viz either boy or girl. where boy may occur once,girl occurs once.Hence by classical prob defination prob of a boy being born is 1/2. Hence percentage will be 1/2*100=50%. (by classical defination). But in the given case above it might be subjective probability,since he is mentioning the percentage to be 51%.

e)Classical Probability: A fair coin when tossed has two outcomes:head/tail. Hence by classical defination prob of head/tail is 1/2. Thus when the fair coin is tossed many times it is evident that about 50% of times you will get head.

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