Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election

Question

Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election prior to results being tallied. Suppose a referendum to increase funding for education is on the ballot in a large town (voting population over 100,000). An exit poll of 300 voters finds that 159 voted for the referendum. How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.49? Based on your result, comment on the dangers of using exit polling to call elections.

How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.49?

The probability that more than 159 people voted for the referendum is _________(Round to four decimal places as needed.)

Explanation / Answer

here p=0.49

here n=300

therefore mean =np=0.49*300 =147

also std deviation=(np(1-p))1/2 =8.6585

hence probability that more than 159 people voted for the referendum is =P(X>=159)=P(Z>(158.5-147)/8.6585)

=P(Z>1.3282)=0.0921

please revert for any clarification required,

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