Recall the second bootstrap confidence interval you created, estimating Candidat

Question

Recall the second bootstrap confidence interval you created, estimating Candidate C's lead over Candidate T. Among voters in the sample, her lead was .09. The staff's 95% confidence interval for her true lead (in the population of all voters) was [.032,.15]

Suppose we are interested in testing a simple yes-or-no question: "Are the candidates tied?"

Our null hypothesis is that the proportions are equal, or, equivalently, that Candidate C's lead is exactly 0. Our alternative hypothesis is that her lead is not equal to 0. In the questions below, don't compute any confidence interval yourself - use only the staff's 95% confidence interval.

**Question:**

1.Say we use a 5% P-value cutoff. Do we reject the null, fail to reject the null, or are we unable to tell using our confidence interval?

2.What if, instead, we use a P-value cutoff of 1%? Do we reject the null, fail to reject the null, or are we unable to tell using our confidence interval?

3.What if we use a P-value cutoff of 10%? Do we reject, fail to reject, or are we unable to tell using our confidence interval?

Explanation / Answer

1. we will reject the null hypothesis because the interval does not contain zero.

2. we unable to tell using our confidence interval.

3. Reject the null hypothesis, as the 95% confidence interval not containing zero, so at p-value cutoff of 10% it will get rejected.

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