and.61. Furthermore, if we use a statistical software package to fit a straight

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and.61. Furthermore, if we use a statistical software package to fit a straight line to the deseasonalized sales values, we find that the estimate of the trend is tr= 22.61 + .59t In addition, we find that the half-lengths of 95 percent prediction intervals for the deseasonalized sales values in the four quarters of the next year are, respectively, 2.90, 2.77, 2.94 If we use the multiplicative decomposition method to analyze the quarterly bicycle sales data given in Table 15.3 below, we find that the quarterly seasonal factors are.45, 1.20, 1.67 and 3.00 Quarterly Sales of the TRK-50 Mountain Bike TABLE 15.3 BikeSales Sales, yt 10 31 Quarter 1 (Winter) 2 (Spring) 3 (Summer) 4 (Fall) Year 16 17 13 34 48 19 15 37 51 21 10 12 13 15 16

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t s t® s*t® 17 0.45 32.64 14.688 18 1.2 33.23 39.876 19 1.67 33.82 56.4794 20 0.61 34.41 20.9901

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