o increase their chances of finding a cure for dementia, a drug company tests 20
ID: 3267946 • Letter: O
Question
o increase their chances of finding a cure for dementia, a drug company tests 20 similar drugs in roughly the same way. The study on drug D10 returns a p value of .05, by far the lowest p value for the drugs studied. Suppose that the positive predictive value of the D10 study is about .6. Which of the following is the most accurate?
After taking into account just the information in the passage, we should conclude that the study strongly supports the conclusion that D10 is a cure for dementia.
Without further testing, the methodology of the experimenters should make them skeptical that D10 is a cure for dementia. A p value of .05 suggests that if you run 20 similar studies, chance alone makes it likely that at least one of the 20 studies yields a p value of .05.
The argument is weak, because we are not explicitly told the base rate that drug D10 is a cure for dementia. The information provides no reason to believe the conclusion in the absence of explicit information about the relevant base rate.
After taking into account just the information in the passage, we should conclude that the study strongly supports the conclusion that D10 is a cure for dementia.
Without further testing, the methodology of the experimenters should make them skeptical that D10 is a cure for dementia. A p value of .05 suggests that if you run 20 similar studies, chance alone makes it likely that at least one of the 20 studies yields a p value of .05.
The argument is weak, because we are not explicitly told the base rate that drug D10 is a cure for dementia. The information provides no reason to believe the conclusion in the absence of explicit information about the relevant base rate.
Explanation / Answer
Answer
After taking into account just the information in the passage , we should conclude that the study strongly supports the conclusion that D10 is a cure for dementia.
Reason since p-value is less than 0.6, we reject the null hypothesis. And accept the alternative hypothesis which supports that D10 increases the chance of cure for dementia.
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