Monthly demand at G&B Electronics for TVs are as follows: Period Demand (units)

Question

Monthly demand at G&B Electronics for TVs are as follows:

Period

Demand (units)

1

1000

2

1113

3

1271

4

1445

5

1558

6

1648

7

1724

8

1850

9

1864

10

2076

11

2167

12

2191

Estimate demand for the next month using simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.3. For this model use level at Period 0 to be Lo=1,659 (the average demand over the 12 months). Evaluate the MAD,MAPE,MSE,TS and biad at n=12

Period

Demand (units)

1

1000

2

1113

3

1271

4

1445

5

1558

6

1648

7

1724

8

1850

9

1864

10

2076

11

2167

12

2191

Explanation / Answer

Exponential alpha =0.3 1 1000 1659 2 1113 1461.3 348.3 121312.89 31.2938005 3 1271 1356.81 85.81 7363.3561 6.75137687 4 1445 1331.067 113.933 12980.7285 7.88463668 5 1558 1365.2469 192.7531 37153.7576 12.3718293 6 1648 1423.07283 224.92717 50592.2318 13.6484933 7 1724 1490.55098 233.449019 54498.4445 13.5411264 8 1850 1560.58569 289.414313 83760.6447 15.6440169 9 1864 1647.40998 216.590019 46911.2365 11.6196362 10 2076 1712.38699 363.613014 132214.424 17.5150777 11 2167 1821.47089 345.529109 119390.365 15.9450443 12 2191 1925.12962 265.870377 70687.0572 12.1346589 MAE MSE MAPE 243.653556 736865.136 14.395427

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