Gampel Builders manufactures sells storage sheds for commercial use. John Gampel
ID: 3270484 • Letter: G
Question
Gampel Builders manufactures sells storage sheds for commercial use. John Gampel, president of Gampel Builders, is contemplating producing sheds for home use. The activities necessary to build an experimental model, related data and the corresponding PERT/CPM network are given on the next page. Information about the activities and the corresponding PERT/CPM network are shown below.
ACTIVITY
Immediate
Predecessors
EXPECTED
TIME
COST ($)
ESTIMATED VARIANCE
A
---
2
22,000
2
B
A
4
30,000
2
C
A
3
26,000
1
D
A
7
48,000
3
E
B
6
56,000
2
F
B
5
30,000
1
G
C
8
80,000
2
H
D
5
16,000
2
;.’I
E
4
24,000
1
J
F, G, H
6
38,000
2
Times are in weeks.
If we want to bid the job but be 85% confident that it will be done on time, how long should we bid – note the standard deviation of the project 3?
16.9
19.6
23.1
21.04
ACTIVITY
Immediate
Predecessors
EXPECTED
TIME
COST ($)
ESTIMATED VARIANCE
A
---
2
22,000
2
B
A
4
30,000
2
C
A
3
26,000
1
D
A
7
48,000
3
E
B
6
56,000
2
F
B
5
30,000
1
G
C
8
80,000
2
H
D
5
16,000
2
;.’I
E
4
24,000
1
J
F, G, H
6
38,000
2
Explanation / Answer
here ADHJ is on critical path for which expected time =20
and std deviaiton =(2+3+2+2)1/2 =3
for 85 percentile ; z=1.0364
therfore project length =mean +z*std deviation =20+3*1.0364=23.1
hence option C is correct
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