** Please Solve this using the Markov Process ** 4) UA McKale Center is the athl

Question

** Please Solve this using the Markov Process **

4) UA McKale Center is the athletic arena where UA Men’s and Women’s basketball teams play their home games. McKale Center has a seating capacity of 14,545. The Tucson metropolitan area has an estimated population of 994,000. Current McKale Center season ticket holders tend to renew their season tickets with probability 95% and Tucson Metro residents who do not currently have season tickets will purchase season tickets for the following season with probability 0.15%. Assuming that there are currently 12,000 season ticket holders in 2017, in what year will the demand for season tickets exceed the seating capacity of the McKale Center?

Explanation / Answer

P =

    0.9500    0.0015
    0.0500    0.9985

A =

       12000
      982000

P^3*A

ans =

14486.4

979513.6

after 3 years

14486 < 14545

P^4 *A

ans =

15231

978769

now 15231 > 14545

hence in 4 years the demand for season tickets exceed the seating capacity of the McKale Center

so 2017 +4 = 2021

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