Use 4 decimal places for rounding! 1. Use the data given in Problem #4.1 in the

Question

Use 4 decimal places for rounding! 1. Use the data given in Problem #4.1 in the textbook for this question. Find forecasts for week 2 to week 6 using the Naive method. Compute the values of CFE, MAD, MAPE, and MSE. 2. Problem #4.7 (textbook) 3. Problem #4.13 (textbook). Use forecast errors for Year 2 to year 5 for computing MAD except for (b). For (b) use as many errors as possible. (If you are using Excel do not use Data Analysis for answering (b), no credit if you do.) 4. Problem #426 (textbook). After computing the seasonal indices find a forecast for all the four quarters of years 5. Assume the annual demand for year 5 will increase by 5% compared to year 4. 5. Problem #4.28 (textbook), instead of year 26 find the forecast for the four quarters of year 30. SHOW ALL YOUR WORK FOR FULL CREDIT -- NO WORK NO CREDIT!!!!! Completed homework must be uploaded to Block boo rd. Acceptable file formats ore pdf, docx, xlsx, files of any other format will NOT be graded. Emailed homework will NOT be graded Partial answer key (round to 4 decimal places.) 1. MAD = 19.6 2. (c) F, = 56.3 3. (a) For alpha = 0.9 MAD = 3.6549: (c) F_i = 61.8 4. For Fall = 1630 5. Forecast for Fall year 30 = 90.02

Explanation / Answer

Let X_t represent forecast in period t

A_t represent actual number of patient  

A_7 = (0.4 * A_6 + 0.3 *A_5 + 0.2 * A_4 + 0.1*A_3)     {note 0.4 is assigned to previous year and 0.3 for its previous and so on}

= (0.4*52+0.3*63+0.2*48+0.1*70)

= 56.3

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