2. (+10) The reliability of a particular test for the Ebola virus is as follows:

Question

2. (+10) The reliability of a particular test for the Ebola virus is as follows: If the subject has Ebola, the test comes back positive 98% of the time. If the subject does not have Ebola, the test comes back positive 1% of the time. From a large po is selected at random and given the test, which comes back positive. SHOW ALL WORK A YOUR FINAL ANSWER pulation, in which 2 in every 10,000 people have Ebola, a person (a) What the probability of False Positive and False Negative in the Ebola test (4 points)

Explanation / Answer

Here we are given that given the person has virus, test gives positive test for 98% of time.

Therefore P( positive | has ebola ) = 0.98 This means that

P( negative | ebola ) = 1 - P( positive | has ebola ) = 1 - 0.98 = 0.02

Therefore the false negative in the ebola test is given as 0.02 ( this is false negative as it is incorrectly giving a negative test )

Also we are given that the probability that the test comes positive given that subject does not have ebola is given as:

P( positive | no ebola ) = 0.01

Therefore the false positive rate is 0.01 or 1% which means that the test gives incorrectly a positive even though the person is not suffering from ebola.

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