Please perform computerized solution, not handwritten. Thanks A young producer h

Question

Please perform computerized solution, not handwritten. Thanks

A young producer has just completed a movie that turned out better than expected. The producer was going to sell the movie to movie theaters. The producer is considering hiring a theatrical consulting firm to test show the movie overseas and to tabulate the responses of movie buffs. The result will either be extremely positive (EP), positive but reserved (PR), or a negative reaction (NR). Ultimately, the movie will be a success (S) or a failure (F). The producer believes the film if it is a success and sold to cablevision, will net $12 million and net $2 million if it's a failure. If it is sold to the theater and is a success, the net is $25 million, but a failure will result in a $5 million loss. The survey, if performed overseas, will cost $2 million. The producer believes that the following probabilities apply: Pr(S) = 3, Pr(EP|S) = 7, Pr(PR|S) = 2, Pr(NR|F) = 8., and Pr(PR|F) = 1. Determine the appropriate posterior probabilities [Pr(S|EP), Pr(F|EP), Pr(S|PR), Pr(F|PR), Pr(S|NR), and Pr(F|NR)] and perform a backwards induction analysis to determine if the experimental information should be obtained.

Explanation / Answer

Conditional prob computation:

excel formula"

Given computed P(S)= 0.3 P(F)= 0.7 P(EP|S)= 0.7 P(PR|S)= 0.2 P(NR|F)= 0.8 P(PR|F)= 0.1 joint probability table EP PR NR S 0.21 0.06 0.03 0.3 F 0.07 0.07 0.56 0.7 0.28 0.13 0.59 1 P(S|EP)= 0.75 P(F|EP)= 0.25 P(S|PR)= 0.461538 P(F|PR)= 0.538462 P(S|NR)= 0.050847 P(F|NR)= 0.949153

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse P
• Subjects

---

---

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.