or the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on tim

Question

or the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83.

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Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for = 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to three decimal places. Moving Average Exponential smoothing MSE

Explanation / Answer

for 3 month moving average:

for exponential smoothing:

from above 3 month moving average forecast is better due to less MSE.

actual(A) forecast(F) (A-F)^2 80 82 84 83 82.000 1.000 83 83.000 0.000 84 83.333 0.444 85 83.333 2.778 84 84.000 0.000 82 84.333 5.444 83 83.667 0.444 84 83.000 1.000 83 83.000 0.000 total 11.111 MSE=average 1.235

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