Monthly demand at G&B Electronics for TVs are as follows: Period Demand (units)
ID: 3296589 • Letter: M
Question
Monthly demand at G&B Electronics for TVs are as follows:
Period
Demand (units)
1
1000
2
1113
3
1271
4
1445
5
1558
6
1648
7
1724
8
1850
9
1864
10
2076
11
2167
12
2191
Estimate demand for the next month using Holt’s model with alpha = 0.05 and beta = 0.1. For this model use the level at Period 0 to be Lo=948 and the trend at Period 0 to be To=109 (both are obtained through regression). Copy and paste table(s) from Excel.
Evaluate the MAD,MPAE,MSE,TS and bias at n=12.
Period
Demand (units)
1
1000
2
1113
3
1271
4
1445
5
1558
6
1648
7
1724
8
1850
9
1864
10
2076
11
2167
12
2191
Explanation / Answer
Period Demand (units) L T hat(y) abs(e) abs(e/y) e^2 e 1 1000 948.00 109.00 2 1113 1059.80 109.28 1057.00 56 0.050314 3136 56.00 3 1271 1174.18 109.79 1169.08 101.92 0.080189 10387.69 101.92 4 1445 1292.02 110.59 1283.97 161.0344 0.111442 25932.08 161.03 5 1558 1410.38 111.37 1402.61 155.3879 0.099735 24145.4 155.39 6 1648 1528.07 112.00 1521.75 126.2468 0.076606 15938.25 126.25 7 1724 1644.27 112.42 1640.07 83.93152 0.048684 7044.499 83.93 8 1850 1761.35 112.89 1756.69 93.31234 0.050439 8707.192 93.31 9 1864 1873.73 112.84 1874.24 10.24245 0.005495 104.9077 -10.24 10 2076 1991.04 113.29 1986.57 89.43172 0.043079 7998.033 89.43 11 2167 2107.46 113.60 2104.32 62.67503 0.028922 3928.159 62.68 12 2191 2219.55 113.45 2221.06 30.05721 0.013718 903.4359 -30.06 MAD MAPE MSE TS 88.20357895 5.532957653 9838.695322 10.08621
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