There are four students in a class: Joey, Chandler, Rachel, and Monica. The prof

Question

There are four students in a class: Joey, Chandler, Rachel, and Monica. The professor of the class has announced that he would give grade ‘A’ to only one student in the class. Curious Joey wants to assess his chance of obtaining ‘A’. He asks the professor “I know that you are not going to tell me whether I will get an A or not. But, you can certainly tell me which one of the rest three (Chandler, Rachel, or Monica) will not receive A”. The professor finds the question to be harmless and replies that Rachel will not receive A. Furthermore, the professor provides an option to Joey to switch his grade with Monica’s. Use Baye’s rule to determine if Joey should take up on this option?

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Explanation / Answer

Probability of Joey's chances to get grade A =1/4

Probability of Chandler's chances to get grade A =1/4

Probability of Rachel's chances to get grade A =1/4

Probability of Monica's chances to get grade A =1/4

But The professor finds the question to be harmless and replies that Rachel will not receive A.

So now ,Probability of Joey's,Chandler's,Monica's chances to get grade A =1/3

Use Baye's rule and we get,

P(Joey/Monica)=P(Joey,Monica)/P(Monica)=1/3=0.3333

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