When a person is exposed to the flu virus, the person either contracts the flu o

Question

When a person is exposed to the flu virus, the person either contracts the flu or does not. There are many factors which come into play that might determine whether any individual contracts the flu. Alex and Chris are both tasked with approximating the probability that someone will contract the flu when coming in contact with the flu virus. Alex's reasoning: Last year in flu season, six out of the 24 people in Alex's work area contracted flu. So Alex approximates the probability as 6/24 = 0.25 or 25%. Chris's reasoning: There are two possible outcomes, contract the flu or do not contract the flu. One of these is a success. So number of successes over number of outcomes is 1/2 = 0.5 or 50%. Critique both Alex's reasoning and Chris's reasoning.

Explanation / Answer

Alex's reasoning: Last year in flu season, six out of the 24 people in Alex's work area contracted flu.

This is flawed firstly because sample size is very small (24 people) and cannot be generalized for the whole population. Also, the sample was taken from his work area and not from genral population. Then, out of 24 people how many were exposed to virus? No information on that.

Chris's reasoning: There are two possible outcomes, contract the flu or do not contract the flu. One of these is a success. So number of successes over number of outcomes is 1/2 = 0.5 or 50%

This does not tell us if as to how many if exposed cintact the flu or dont. This just tells the half probability like head or tail of a coin. This is just a sample space.

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