. For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on

Question

.

For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83.

Choose the correct time series plot.

a) What type of pattern exists in the data? _____________



Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for  = 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? Do not round your intermediate computations and round your final answers to two decimal places.

b)

C) What is the forecast for next month? Round your answer to two decimal places.

________________

(i) (ii) (iii) (iv)
90 0 85 80 75 1 2 3 4 5 6 78 9 0 11 12 Month

Explanation / Answer

curve III is correct

a)a) What type of pattern exists in the data? -- cyclical

b) for Moving
average

MSE =1.23

for exponential smoothing:

therefore 3 month moving average is better due to low MSE

c)

for 3 month moving average forecast for next month =83.33

for exponential smmothing forecast for next month =83.07

actual forcast (A-F)^2 80 82 84 83 82.00 1.00 83 83.00 0.00 84 83.33 0.44 85 83.33 2.78 84 84.00 0.00 82 84.33 5.44 83 83.67 0.44 84 83.00 1.00 83 83.00 0.00 83.33 total 11.11 MSE 1.23

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