Problem 4.3 Consider the following two AM peak work trip generation models, esti

Question

Problem 4.3 Consider the following two AM peak work trip generation models, estimated by household linear regression Y 0.5(2.5) + 2.0X1 (6.9) 1.5X2 (5.6) R2 0.589 1/2 Y = 0.01 (0.9) + 2.3X1 (4.6) + 1. 1 ZI (1.9) + 4.122 (3.4) R2 0.601 Where y are household trips to work in the morning peak, X1 is the number of workers in the household, X2 is the number of cars in the household, Z1 is a dummy variable which takes the value of 1 if the household has one car and Z2 is a dummy variable which takes the value of 1 if the household has two or more cars. (a) Choose one of the models, explaining clearly why you chose it. (b) Graphically depict both models using appropriate axis (c) If a zone has 1000 households (with an average of two workers per household), of which 50% has no cars, 35% has only one car and the rest exactly two cars. estimate the total number of trips generated by the zone with both models Discuss our results.

Explanation / Answer

a )

we choose model 2 , because R^2 of model 2 is more {0.601 > 0.589}

b) plot yourself

c)

0 car = 500 ,

1 car = 350

2 car = 150

y1^ = 500 * (0.5 + 2 *2) + 350* (0.5 + 2 * 2 + 1.5 * 1) + 150 *( 0.5 +2*2 + 1.5 *2)

= 5475

z1 = 1 if 1 car , z2 = 1 if more than 1

hence

y2^ = 500 * (0.01 + 2.3 * 2 ) + 350* ( 0.01 + 2.3 *2 + 1.1)+ 150 *( 0.01 +2.3 * 2+ 4.1 )

=5610

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