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Problem 4 (25 points) A physician examines patients that are suspected to have l

ID: 3304756 • Letter: P

Question

Problem 4 (25 points) A physician examines patients that are suspected to have lung cancer. Ten percent among those actually do have lung cancer The physician starts her diagnosis by obtaining an X-ray. For the patients that do have lung cancer, the physician correctly diagnoses cancer with probability 0.9. For those that do not, the physician still diagnoses lung cancer with probability 0.05. Compute the probability that a person that has been diagnosed lung cancer by the physician in fact has lung cancer

Explanation / Answer

Suppose there are 100 people

Thus, 10 have cancer

Probability = 9/(13.5) = 0.67

Has cancer Doesn't have Test + 9 4.5 Test - 1 85.5
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