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0 In the classic movie \"It\'s a Wonderful Life\", George Bailey and Mary Hatch

ID: 3306373 • Letter: 0

Question

0 In the classic movie "It's a Wonderful Life", George Bailey and Mary Hatch perform the Charleston at the school dance, which is held at the gym. Assume that each step of their dance has them take a step to the left with probability 2/3, and a step to the right with probability 1/3. We'll assume the gym is infinitely wide, and if left to their own devices, the couple would dance forever. Mary and George begin their dance at position x =-3. A prankster, who is jealous that George is dancing with Mary, opens the floor of the gym, which contains a large swimming pool located at x = 0, A diagram of the unfortunate situation is shown, with the dot representing the couple's initial position. What is the probability that Mary and George will eventually fall into the swimming pool?

Explanation / Answer

Rolling a single die

1) probability of rolling divisors of 6 :

Since its a single die, the possible outcomes are 1,2,3,4,5,6. All have equal probability(1/6) since its a fair die

Out of these divisors of 6 are 1,2,3,6. So P(divisors of 6) = 1/6*1/6*1/6*1/6 = 1/1296 = 0.0008

2) probability of rolling a multiple of 1: Since all(1,2,3,4,5,6) are multiples of 6 = 1/6*1/6*1/6*1/6*1/6*1/6= 1/46656 = 0.00002

3) probability of rolling an even number : There are 3 even numbers between 1-6 i.e. 2,4,6

Hence probability of rolling an even number = 1/6*1/6*1/6 = 1/216 =0.0046

4) List of all possible outcomes of rolling a single die ={1,2,3,4,5,6}

5) probability of rolling factors of 3 : Factors of 3 are 1,3

Hence probability of rolling factors of 3 = 1/6*1/6 = 1/36 = 0.0278

6) probability of rolling a 3 or smaller : 3 or smaller are 1,2,3. Hence the probability = 1/6*1/6*1/6 = 1/216 = 0.0046

7) probability of rolling a prime number: Prime numbers between 1-6 are 2,3,5 hence probability = 1/6*1/6*1/6=1/216=0.0046

8) probability of rolling factors of 4 : Factors of 4 are 1,2,4 hence the probability = 1/6*1/6*1/6 = 1/216 =0.0046

9) probability of rolling divisors of 30 : Divisors of 30 are 1,2,3,5,6 = 1/6*1/6*1/6*1/6*1/6 = 1/7776 = 0.0001

10) probability of rolling factors of 24: Factors of 24 are 1,2,3,4,6 = 1/6*1/6*1/6*1/6*1/6=1/7776=0.0001