Please help me The questions : c) What is the probability of winning the case wh

Question

Please help me

The questions :

c) What is the probability of winning the case when the expert predicted a win ? What is the probability of winning the case when the expert predicted a lost ?

d) Should the lawyer consult with the expert ?

Question 3: A lawyer is preparing a case for a trial. In an attempt to decide whether to follow an aggressive approach or a conservative approach in presenting his client's case, he has developed the following payoff table Case Win Lose Aggressive $40,000 $10,000 Conservative $20,000 $6,000 Approach The lawyer believes there is a probability of 30% that he can win the case. However, for a fee of $2,000, he can consult an expert who is familiar with this type of case and can provide another opinion on whether the case will be won. Previous experience with using this expert can be summarized by the following table Outcome Won Expert Predicted Win 0.85 Lose0.15 Lost 0.05 0.95

Explanation / Answer

(a)

The probability of winning the case when the expert predicted a win

= P(outcome winning the case | expert predicted a win)

= 0.85

The probability of winning the case when the expert predicted a lost

= P(outcome winning the case | expert predicted a lost)

= 0.15

(b)

Yes, the lawyer should consult the expert because

the probability of winning the case when the expert predicted a win is 0.85

the probability of winning the case when the expert predicted a lost is 0.15

the probability of losing the case when the expert predicted a win is 0.05

the probability of losing the case when the expert predicted a loss is 0.95

The outcome of the prediction of the expert is very accurate.

So, the lawyer should consult with the expert.

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