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ID: 3318621 • Letter: E
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eco Credit Union Google YouTube h Hulu G Save& Exit Time remaining: 1:43:08 10.00 points Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as I 7-1 16 80 + 1.41t iaddition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated as 31-o969-0.953-1.22, and 3, 1.05. a-1. Interpret the first quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the first quarter as compared to the average? @ 4% belo 96% below 96% above 4% above a-2. Interpret the fourth quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the fourth quarter as compared to the average? @ 95% above 95% below 5% below 5% above b. Make a forecast for all four quarters of next year. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 References eBook & Resources Worksheet Diffclly 3 Hard Leaming Objective: 18-04 Calculate and interpret seasonal indices and use them to seasonally adjust a time Type here to searchExplanation / Answer
A-1
Option-1 4% below
A-2
Option-4 5% above
(B)
We know that, forecast yt = Tt*Si
Then, next year t= 5,6,7,8 for quarter 1, 2,3,4 respectively
Thus, for next year
Quarter 1 yt = (116.8 + 1.41*1)(0.96) = 113.48
Quarter 2 yt = (116.8 + 1.41*2)(0.95) = 113.64
Quarter 3 yt = (116.8 + 1.41*3)(1.22) = 147.66
Quarter 4 yt = (116.8 + 1.41*4)(1.05) = 128.56
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