You and your friend see dark clouds are rolling in on the horizon. Your friend s
ID: 3321543 • Letter: Y
Question
You and your friend see dark clouds are rolling in on the horizon. Your friend says, "A thunderstorm is very likely." The indicator on your car's fuel gauge is just above "E." you think "I can probably drive 25 more miles before running out of gas." Very likely and probably are words that allow us to state the probability of an event occurring with some level of certainty.
"Maybe I have $100 in my savings account." "It's not likely that I'll travel to India this winter." Not likely and maybe express a belief that the probability of an occurrence is low.
Consider the probability of the following events occurring:
Winning the state lottery
Pulling a red marble out of a bag filled with 10 red marbles, 2 blue marbles, and 1 black marble
Randomly choosing one senior from a sample taken from all students at your high school
Using common terms such as maybe, certainly, probably, not likely, very likely, or possibly describe the probability of these different events occurring. Say why you might use one term rather than another in each scenario.
Explanation / Answer
(a) Event : Winning a state lottery:
Probability of the event: not likely
REASON: Probability of Winning a state lottery is extremely small, considering the events favourable to occurrence as very small as compared to total number of events very large
(b) Event: Pulling a red marble out of a bag fillled with 10 red marbles, 2 blue marbles and 1 black marble
Probability of the event: very likely
REASON: Probability of Red marble = 10/13 = 0.7692, which is near to 1.
(c) Event: Randomly choosing one senior from a saple taken from all students at your high school
Probability of the event: may be
REASON: In the sample, the exact total number of students and the number of seniors are not given. So, the probability of choosing one senior cannot be calculated precisely.
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