15 Points Use the same data that you used in the first problem. A.) Forecast the

Question

15 Points Use the same data that you used in the first problem.

A.) Forecast the 11th year data using the naïve model.

B.) Calculate the MAD for this forecast .

C.) Calculate a Seasonal adjustment for each month of the year using the ten years of data.

D.) Apply your seasonal adjustments to the simple forecasts you made in part 2)a.

E.) Calculate the MAD of your seasonally adjusted, simple forecast for 2011.

201 220 ass 200 202 $15 005 012 0 1, 0 3 4 4 5 1 8 8 6 6 0 2 5 3 2 2 8 3 2 3 3 6 7 8 O, O, 2 421 22 23 37 57 63 20 77 39 11 11. 22 91 58 123456789 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 3 3 3 3 3 36 3 3 39 40 41 8

Explanation / Answer

B)

Error = Actual demand - forecast = Demand cell - forecast cell

Absolute error = Absolute value of error = "abs(cell reference)"

MAD = average of absolute error

C)

Months Actual Demand 2 months moving average Formula error Absolute error Jan-16 695 Feb-16 745 720 =AVERAGE(G2:G3) 25 25 Mar-16 891 818 =AVERAGE(G3:G4) 73 73 Apr-16 826 858.5 =AVERAGE(G4:G5) -32.5 32.5 May-16 884 855 =AVERAGE(G5:G6) 29 29 Jun-16 864 874 =AVERAGE(G6:G7) -10 10 Jul-16 932 898 =AVERAGE(G7:G8) 34 34 Aug-16 1002 967 =AVERAGE(G8:G9) 35 35 Sep-16 964 983 =AVERAGE(G9:G10) -19 19 Oct-16 974 969 =AVERAGE(G10:G11) 5 5 Nov-16 1144 1059 =AVERAGE(G11:G12) 85 85 Dec-16 1046 1095 =AVERAGE(G12:G13) -49 49 Jan-17 928 987 =AVERAGE(G13:G14) -59 59 Feb-17 998 963 =AVERAGE(G14:G15) 35 35 Mar-17 1249 1123.5 =AVERAGE(G15:G16) 125.5 125.5 Apr-17 908 1078.5 =AVERAGE(G16:G17) -170.5 170.5 May-17 1150 1029 =AVERAGE(G17:G18) 121 121 Jun-17 1129 1139.5 =AVERAGE(G18:G19) -10.5 10.5 Jul-17 1089 1109 =AVERAGE(G19:G20) -20 20 Aug-17 1148 1118.5 =AVERAGE(G20:G21) 29.5 29.5 Sep-17 1094 1121 =AVERAGE(G21:G22) -27 27 Oct-17 1130 1112 =AVERAGE(G22:G23) 18 18 Nov-17 1130

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