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below gives the likelihood that different types of drivers will be involved any

ID: 3326647 • Letter: B

Question

below gives the likelihood that different types of drivers will be involved any one-year period. Given that a driver has been involved in at 18. The fictionalized table giv Gie t in at least one collisson during t one collision in the past year, what is the probability that the c Type ofPercentage Probability of at Driver of All Drivers Least One Collision 0.15 0.10 0.03 0.05 oetro 16 45 31% Young Adult Senior (a) 16/57 (b) 4/19 (c) 15/19 (d) 1/12 (e) 3/13 () None of the above. and diamonds. It takes 2/5 unit of lumber and 3/5 unit l1/4 unit of diamonds to

Explanation / Answer

Using law of total probability, we get here:

P( at least one collision ) = 0.08*0.15 + 0.16*0.1 + 0.45*0.03 + 0.31*0.05 = 0.057

Now using bayes theorem, we get here:

P( teen | at least one collision ) = P( at least one collision | teen )P( teen ) / P( at least one collision )

P( teen | at least one collision ) = 0.08*0.15 / 0.057 = 1 / 4.75 = 4 / 19

Therefore b) 4/19 is the required probability here.