cenl, ll Interpret this probability. Show your ducing notation for events, speci
ID: 3329835 • Letter: C
Question
cenl, ll Interpret this probability. Show your ducing notation for events, specif that are given, and using a tree dia answer robabilities b. Repeat part a if the unconditional probahi c. Explain why it is very important for a defense of inno cence is 0.99. Compare results. a defense lawyert explain the difference betweenP(DNA innocent) and P(person innocent DNA match) matchper Triple Blood 5.62 Triple Blood Test Example 8 about the Tripl Test for Down syndrome found the results shown i table below. In Blood Test NEG POS 48 1307 1355 Total 54 5228 5282 Down Yes 3921 Total 3927 a. Estimate the probability that Down syndrome occurs (Down = Yes). b. Find the estimated (i) sensitivity and (ii) specificiy, c. Find the estimated () P(Yes POS) and (i) P(No/NE (Note: These probabilities are the predictive values d. Explain how the probabilities in parts b and cge ways of describing the probability that a diagnost test tic makes a correct decision. 63 Simulating donations to local hlood haExplanation / Answer
a. Probability that Down Syndrome occurs = Total down syndrome person/ Total Persons = 54/5282 = 0.0102
b. (i) sensitivity = sensitivity is the ability of a test to correctly identify those with the disease
Sensitivity = True positive/ (True Positive + False Negative) = 48/ (48 + 6) = 0.8889
Specificity = measures the proportion of negatives that are correctly identified as such
Specificity = True Negative/ (True Negative + False Positive) = 3921/ (3921 + 1307) = 0.75
(xc) P(YES l POS) = P( Yes and positive) / P(Positive) = 48/ (1355) = 0.0354
P(No l Neg) = P(No and Negative l Negative) = 3921/ (3921 + 6) = 0.9984
(d) These four are the four condition probability which describes how the blood test behaves. Blood test behaves very well in the case of negative syndrome prediction but not so well in the case of positive syndrome prediction.
Related Questions
Navigate
Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.