3. Historic records show that the mean duration of all activity is expected to b

Question

3. Historic records show that the mean duration of all activity is expected to be 8 days with a standard deviation of 2.4 days. what duration should be used if there is to be a 95% confidence that the duration will not be exceeded? What is the probability that the duration will actually exceed 10 days? Answer: Mean Duration Standard Deviation =8days 2.4 days 8 days std. dev- 2.4 days Scale document down Duration not to be exceeded with 95% confidence, eg. mean+1.645 std. dev. Duration not to exceed with 95% confidence 8 days + 1.645 (2.4 days) 11.95 days or 12 days 8 days std, dev = 2.4 days 10 days duration will not be exceeded with ?% probability. Number of standard deviations beyond the mean [10- 8]/2.4 =.833 Probability ofcompleting in less than 10 days = 79.77%-80% (from Table 4.3)

Explanation / Answer

The solution is correct. the probability value corresponding to 0.833 is nearly 80% and we are looking for area to right. thus it's right answer

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