Horwege Electronics Inc. purchases TV picture tubes from four different supplies

Question

Horwege Electronics Inc. purchases TV picture tubes from four different supplies. Tyson wholesale supplies 20 percent of the tubes. fuji importers 30percent kirkpatricks 25 percnt and parts inc 25 percent. tyson wholesale tends to hav the best quality as only 3 percent of its tubes arrive defective. fuji importers tubes are 4 percent dective irpatrcks 7 percent and parts inc are 6.5 percent defective. a defective picture tube was discovered in the latest shipment. what is the probability that it came from tyson wholesale?

Explanation / Answer

P( from Tyson | defective) =??

Using Bayes theorem,

P( from Tyson | defective) = P( defective | Tyson) * P( Tyson) / P( defective)

P( defective | Tyson) = 3% = 0.03

P( Tyson) = 20% = 0.2

P( defective) = 3% of 20% + 4% of 30% + 7% of 25% + 6.5% of 25%

= 0.006 + 0.012 + 0.0175 + 0.01625 = 0.05175

P( from Tyson | defective) = P( defective | Tyson) * P( Tyson) / P( defective) = 0.1159

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse H
• Subjects

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.