help 1) Use the IPAT equation to estimate the percentage increase in the amount

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1) Use the IPAT equation to estimate the percentage increase in the amount of energy that would be required, worldwide, in 2055, relative to 2017. To estimate the increase in population and affluence, assume that population grows 2% per year and that global economic activity per person grows 4% per year. Assume that the energy consumption per dollar of GDP (the T in the IPAT equation) remains at 2017 levels. How much does this estimate change if population growth is 3% and economic growth is 5%?

Explanation / Answer

The IPAT equation is given as I = P x A x T, where I is the Impact (Environmental Impact), P is the population, A stands for affluence and T stands for Technology. The equation describes the multiplicative contribution of population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T) to environmental impact (I).

Population growth is 2% per year. So, in 38 years (2055-2018), the population is P x 1.0238

Economic activity grows 4% per year, so in 38 years, the A factor become A x 1.0438  

The T remains constant.

So the new I = P x 1.0238 x  A x 1.0438 x T = P x A x T x 9.4205

So in 2055, the amount of energy required increases 9.4205 times, or 942.05%.

If population growth is 3% and economic growth is 5%, then the new I = P x 1.0338 x  A x 1.0538 x T

= P x A x T x 19.6340

So in 2055, the amount of energy required increases 19.634 times, or 1963.4%.

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