Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series of sales. Y

Question

Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series of sales. Year Quarter Time Series Value Yt 1 1 36 2 24 3 16 4 20 2 1 44 21. Refer to data above. When a naïve method is used, what is the forecast on the sales in Quarter 2 of Year 2. a. 20 b. 44 c. 27 d. 30 22. Refer to data in Q21. When a three-quarter moving average is used, what is the forecast on the sales in Quarter 2 of Year 2. a. 20.5 b. 44.3 c. 26.7 d. 30.2 23. Refer to data in Q21. When a three-quarter weighted moving average (W1= 0.5, W2 = 0.3, and W3 = 0.2) is used, what is the forecast on the sales in Quarter 2 of Year 2. (Hint: Ft+1 = W1Dt + W2D ( t – 1) + W3D ( t – 2) ) a. 24.4 b. 30.2 c. 22.8 d. 31.2 24. Refer to data in Q21. When an exponential smoothing model is used with a smoothing parameter alpha of 0.30 and a Q1-Year 2 forecast is 20, what is the forecast on the sales in Quarter 2 of Year 2. (Hint: Ft+1 = aYt + (1 – a)Ft) a. 27.2 b. 29.2 c. 31.2 d. 33.2 25. Refer to data in Q21. The equation for the trend line of quarterly sales is Ft = 24.4 + 1.2t. What is the forecast on the sales in Quarter 2 of Year 2. (Hint: t=1 for Q1-Year 1, 2 for Q2-year 1, and so on ) a. 31.2 b. 30.4 c. 32.2 d. 31.6

Explanation / Answer

Q20) Forecast on the sales in Quarter 2 of year 2 is 44
Answer: option(B) 44

Q21) Three quarter moving average is used,
the forecast on the sales in Quarter 2 of year (16+20+44)/3= 26.667
Correct answer: option (C) 26.7

Q22) weighted moving average: 16*0.5 + 20*0.3 + 44*0.2 = 22.8
Correct answer: option (C) 22.8

Q23) Ft+1 = aYt + (1 – a)Ft =0.3*44 + (1 – 0.3)20 = 27.20
Correct answer: option (A) 27.20

Q24)Given Ft = 24.4 + 1.2t.
If t = 6 then Ft = 24.4 + 1.2*6 = 31.6

Correct answer: option (D) 31.6

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