1. Discuss Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting models, situations in which
ID: 3368642 • Letter: 1
Question
1. Discuss Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting models, situations in which each of them will be used and give examples for each models you discuss 2. To complete the wing assembly for an experimental aircraft, L.G. Abebe, Assembly manager in Bishoftu has laid out the major steps These activities have been labeled A through G in the following table, which also shows their estimated completion times (in weeks) and immediate predecessors. i. Determine the expected time and variance for each ii. If you are asked to crash the project due to some unforeseen urgency what is the maximum duration for which you can crash this project? Which activities can be crashed and which are not? 3. Adamu, owner of a large cattle breeding farm near Adama, is planning to install a complete water system connecting all of the various stables and barns. The location of the facilities and the distances between them is given in the network shown in Figure below. Adamu must determine the least expensive way to provide water to each facility minimum-spanning tree What do you recommend using 4. Discuss on Inventory models and support the models withExplanation / Answer
Sol #1:
Quantitative forecasting methods
Examples:
Govt. forecast for the GDP using historical data
Weather forecast using historical weather data
Walmart holiday seasons forecasts using historical forecasts
Stock price forecasts using the last few week’s stock data
Qualitative forecasting methods
Examples:
Seasonal sales forecast from the sales people
Potential vehicles sales estimation in coming quarters through market survey
The US presidential elections outcome through survey of voters and opinion polls
Quantitative methods are used when historical data available. Even after building mathematical models, forecast values may not accurate. Fine tuning is done by asking expert’s opinion to improve forecast accuracy. Qualitative models generally used when there is no adequate data to build the model. Sometimes, qualitative guess gives better results because expert uses his experience to predict values.
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