On September 18, 2003, hurricane Isabel struck the North Carolina Coast, causing

Question

On September 18, 2003, hurricane Isabel struck the North Carolina Coast, causing extensive damage. For several days prior to reaching land the National Hurricane Center had been predicting the hurricane would come on shore between Cape Fear, North Carolina, and the North Carolina-Virginia border. It was estimated that the probability the hurricane would actually strike in this area was 0.81. In fact, the hurricane did come on shore almost exactly as forecast and was almost in the center of the strike area.

What is the probability at least one of 4 hurricanes reaches land outside the strike area? (Round your answer to 4 decimal places.)

On September 18, 2003, hurricane Isabel struck the North Carolina Coast, causing extensive damage. For several days prior to reaching land the National Hurricane Center had been predicting the hurricane would come on shore between Cape Fear, North Carolina, and the North Carolina-Virginia border. It was estimated that the probability the hurricane would actually strike in this area was 0.81. In fact, the hurricane did come on shore almost exactly as forecast and was almost in the center of the strike area.

Explanation / Answer

C)

P(at least one misses) =1 - P(none missed)

= 1 - 0.81^4

= 0.56953279 [ANSWER]

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