This is the data for the questions. I copied it from an excel file. You have 162
ID: 3384392 • Letter: T
Question
This is the data for the questions. I copied it from an excel file. You have 162 monthly values of retails sales of hardware stores (HW) in the US.
a) Estimate and report a linear trend component for the HW time series using the ordinary least squares (OLS) technique.
b) Compute a seasonal index using a 12 month centered moving average fo the HW series. Based on your results, would you describe hardware as a seasonal business? Explain.
c) Do an in-sample forecast on Books sales using the multiplicative time series technique (assume the cyclical component is equal to 1 for every month).
d) Use the information contained in the following table to perform a forecast of HW for November and December 2015 using the multiplicative time series technique (Note: you will need to compute a trend comonent for these months using the equation you obtained in a.
t YR MO HW 1 2002 1 1154 2 2002 2 1094 3 2002 3 1292 4 2002 4 1534 5 2002 5 1685 6 2002 6 1600 7 2002 7 1555 8 2002 8 1467 9 2002 9 1322 10 2002 10 1403 11 2002 11 1398 12 2002 12 1458 13 2003 1 1185 14 2003 2 1110 15 2003 3 1338 16 2003 4 1492 17 2003 5 1747 18 2003 6 1670 19 2003 7 1622 20 2003 8 1544 21 2003 9 1492 22 2003 10 1507 23 2003 11 1443 24 2003 12 1524 25 2004 1 1197 26 2004 2 1138 27 2004 3 1421 28 2004 4 1636 29 2004 5 1801 30 2004 6 1736 31 2004 7 1689 32 2004 8 1571 33 2004 9 1535 34 2004 10 1496 35 2004 11 1489 36 2004 12 1591 37 2005 1 1247 38 2005 2 1173 39 2005 3 1445 40 2005 4 1691 41 2005 5 1805 42 2005 6 1776 43 2005 7 1615 44 2005 8 1613 45 2005 9 1575 46 2005 10 1632 47 2005 11 1606 48 2005 12 1703 49 2006 1 1343 50 2006 2 1279 51 2006 3 1554 52 2006 4 1755 53 2006 5 2004 54 2006 6 1877 55 2006 7 1752 56 2006 8 1726 57 2006 9 1598 58 2006 10 1654 59 2006 11 1691 60 2006 12 1750 61 2007 1 1451 62 2007 2 1380 63 2007 3 1710 64 2007 4 1777 65 2007 5 2092 66 2007 6 1965 67 2007 7 1726 68 2007 8 1735 69 2007 9 1589 70 2007 10 1667 71 2007 11 1678 72 2007 12 1739 73 2008 1 1420 74 2008 2 1340 75 2008 3 1539 76 2008 4 1806 77 2008 5 2083 78 2008 6 1968 79 2008 7 1797 80 2008 8 1698 81 2008 9 1611 82 2008 10 1695 83 2008 11 1610 84 2008 12 1677 85 2009 1 1360 86 2009 2 1244 87 2009 3 1517 88 2009 4 1753 89 2009 5 1985 90 2009 6 1788 91 2009 7 1627 92 2009 8 1545 93 2009 9 1480 94 2009 10 1573 95 2009 11 1485 96 2009 12 1649 97 2010 1 1304 98 2010 2 1259 99 2010 3 1553 100 2010 4 1777 101 2010 5 1875 102 2010 6 1761 103 2010 7 1658 104 2010 8 1544 105 2010 9 1494 106 2010 10 1564 107 2010 11 1672 108 2010 12 1741 109 2011 1 1355 110 2011 2 1272 111 2011 3 1539 112 2011 4 1796 113 2011 5 2093 114 2011 6 1977 115 2011 7 1817 116 2011 8 1842 117 2011 9 1688 118 2011 10 1774 119 2011 11 1768 120 2011 12 1800 121 2012 1 1491 122 2012 2 1432 123 2012 3 1799 124 2012 4 2023 125 2012 5 2330 126 2012 6 2035 127 2012 7 1810 128 2012 8 1771 129 2012 9 1606 130 2012 10 1804 131 2012 11 1780 132 2012 12 1753 133 2013 1 1479 134 2013 2 1402 135 2013 3 1595 136 2013 4 1825 137 2013 5 1965 138 2013 6 1844 139 2013 7 1738 140 2013 8 1726 141 2013 9 1604 142 2013 10 1744 143 2013 11 1680 144 2013 12 1730 145 2014 1 1565 146 2014 2 1497 147 2014 3 1757 148 2014 4 1877 149 2014 5 2075 150 2014 6 1925 151 2014 7 1904 152 2014 8 1848 153 2014 9 1797 154 2014 10 1956 155 2014 11 1850 156 2014 12 1931 157 2015 1 1756 158 2015 2 1686 159 2015 3 1994 160 2015 4 2162 161 2015 5 2276 162 2015 6 2144 163 2015 7 2194 164 2015 8 2204.667 165 2015 9 2180.889 166 2015 10 2193.185Explanation / Answer
Are you looking for a holt-winters forecast? I am not sure as to what do you mean by HW time-series
However, this video may help if you are looking for holt-winters method.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpiWJaeJPtA
If you have further doubts or need clarifications, feel free to ask.
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