Qing is getting married next Saturday at an outdoor ceremony in upscale westwood

Question

Qing is getting married next Saturday at an outdoor ceremony in upscale westwood Country Club, Vienna. Virginia. In recent years, in the region, it has rained only 100 day s each year (365 days). Unfortunately, the weatherman has predicted rain for Saturday. When it actually rains, the weatherman correctly forecasts rain 80% of the time. When it doesn't rain, he incorrectly forecasts rain 20% of the time. Given the weatherman forecast for Saturday what is the probability of rain on Qing's wedding?

Explanation / Answer

Let us prepare a table for rain not rain first.

Normally prob for rain = 100/365

Prob for rain on wedding = Prob(predict and true) = 0.80

Rain Not Rain Predict 80% 20% Not predict 20% 80%

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