NT 510-part B Operations Management Mid-term Spring 201 2) Use exponential smoot

ID: 348398 • Letter: N

Question

NT 510-part B Operations Management Mid-term Spring 201 2) Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast deliveries for period. Let alpha = 0.4, beta = 0.2, and let the initial trend value be 4 and the initial forecast be 200, (10 points) Actual 200 212 214 236 221 240 244 250 7 1266 Calculate and Fill-in: 1.MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)- Average: 2.MSE (Mean Squared Exror) - Average: 3. Standard Error- Average: 4.MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) 5. Forecast next period 6. Provide track signals for past 9 periods (2-10)

Explanation / Answer

Actual Demand (A)

Forecast (F)

Trend
(T)

Adjusted Forecast
F1= (F+T)

Absoulute Error
B=|A-F1|

Square of Errors E=B^2

Deviation from Mean
D = Mean (F1)-F1

Squared Deviation
D1 = D^2

220

200.0

4.0

204.0

16.0

256.0

203.14

41266.35

212

208.0

4.8

212.8

0.8

0.6

194.34

37768.51

214

209.6

4.2

213.8

0.2

0.1

193.38

37396.30

222

211.4

3.7

215.0

7.0

48.4

192.10

36902.88

236

215.6

3.8

219.4

16.6

275.2

187.73

35242.56

221

223.8

4.7

228.4

7.4

55.3

178.70

31935.38

240

222.7

3.5

226.2

13.8

191.2

180.97

32749.24

244

229.6

4.2

233.8

10.2

104.2

173.35

30049.37

250

235.4

4.5

239.9

10.1

102.7

167.27

27980.41

266

241.2

4.8

246.0

20.0

400.2

161.15

25968.46

Total

2197.2

2239.3

102.2

1433.9

AVERAGE

399.49

407.14

18.58

260.70

33725.95

Forecast, Ft = At-1 + (1-)*Ft-1

Where

Ft = Forecast of this year

At-1 = Actual of previous year

Ft-1 = Forecast of previous year

Trend, Tt = *(Ft - Ft-1) + (1-)*Tt-1

F= 0.4 * 266 + 0.6* 241 = 251

T = 0.2 *(251-241) + 0.8* 4.8 = 5.8

Therefore, F1 = F+ T = 256.8